The Tampa Bay Rays are somehow two games up on the Red Sox in the American League East. And there’s been 90 games played. With 72 games left, are the wheels about to come off?

Surprisingly, many think they have a real shot at the playoffs. I’m not one of those people.

It’s a great story, but they’ve got the Red Sox and Yankees within striking distance—two teams with late season “pressure” experience. Also, the Twins and A’s are close behind for the wild card should the Rays slip.

The Rays just dropped both games of their two-game series with the Yanks. Now they head off to Cleveland for a four-game series. This will be the test. Good teams consistently beat the teams they “should beat.” The Indians are 1-9 over their last 10 and have lost 9 in a row (37-52). The Rays should take 3 of the 4. If they split the series or lose it, we may be watching the beginning of the fall from the top for the Rays.

Side note: The Rays are currently 55-25 (.611). They’ve lost 3 in a row and are just 19-21 on the road. However, the Yankees and Angles are the only two teams with winning road records in the American League (A’s and Rangers are .500 on the road).