How can you fall apart, go 3-7 over your last 10 and still have a lead in your division? It’s possible when you play in the National League Central. The division is simply horrible. The Cardinals have been getting loss after loss handed to them, yet they still have a 2 game lead over Cincinnati. However, the fun stops here. Rival Houston is just 3 games back as the two clubs begin a series today. Houston is a -130 favorite and the Cardinals are a +120 dog. The under/over is 10.

Houston has been treading water, going 5-5 over their last 10. However, this has been good enough to gain some ground, because the Cardinals have been playing so poorly. In fact, second place Cincinnati have played just as poor otherwise this division might look differently. For Houston, the mission is clear. Sweep the Cardinals and be atop the division. All the Cardinals need to do is win one game in Houston to stop a huge rally before the break. If they do that, the best Houston can do is gain 1 game on them.

The Cardinals have Jason Marquis going to the mound for them today. He has a 5.78 ERA overall, but plays worse on the road. His road ERA is 6.57. June was a disastrous month for Marquis. He finish the month with a 8.40 ERA and July has not started much better. Marquis has two starts against Houston this season. His performances were night and day. In one performance, he lasted 5.2 innings and gave up 5 runs over 12 baserunners. In the other performance, he went 7 strong innings allowing a lone run over 5 baserunners. Which Marquis will we see today?

Wandy Rodriguez starts for the Houston Astros. He has a 4.97 ERA over 18 starts this season. His record is 9-5. At home, he has a 5.17 ERA. Despite starting well in April, it’s been downhill ever since. In June, his ERA was 6.42, which was his highest month to date. July has already started out worse. On the 2nd, he faced the Rangers in Texas. He went 5.1 innings, but surrendered 5 runs over 9 baserunners. He has not faced St. Louis this year. In 2005, he faced them twice. The first outing was a disaster—9 runs in 2.2 innings. The second outing was much better. He allowed 3 runs from 6 total baserunners over 6 innings. That was last year though.

Looking at both of these pitchers, one can see why the line is 10. There could definitely be some scoring today. The Astros are favored, because they are at home and playing slightly better. If the Cardinals are going to get on track, now is the time. If the Cardinals fall from first, they might never recover—even in this weak National League Central. If Houston can rise to first place, they will have a lot of momentum and bringing Roger Clemens back will look like a smart move. They have a shot.