Well, last night I was correct on the Royals. They were a tasty +230 against a slightly better team with both pitchers being close to equal, so I bet em. Tonight, game three of the series goes off and the Angels are a huge favorite again. The Angels are currently -280 and the Royals are +230. The under/over is 9. The over is +105 and the under is -125. I am learning towards the over here and perhaps you will see why in a moment.

John Lackey is pitching for the Angels. He gave up 8 runs in his last game, which lasted 4.2 innings for him. Career wise, he is 1-2 with a 5.26 ERA against the Royals. Over this season he has a 3.75 ERA. You can count on him allowing about 8 baserunners tonight. He has a good shot of giving up a home run too.

On the other side, we have Mike Wood. He has two career starts against the Angels and they were both bad. He pitched 11 innings between them and gave up 13 runs—10.32 ERA. He has a 4.97 ERA this year. His last outing lasted 4.2 innings and he gave up 3 runs. He is basically a relief pitcher and has failed to show stamina as a starter so far. He might go 5 innings tonight, which leaves 4 innings for the bull pen to pick up.

This game practically has run scoring written all over it. I also think the Angels are in a good spot to win, but laying -280 on them is madness. One possible option, if you believe they will score, is to play the Angels on the run line. At last look, the Angels were -130 on the run line. Game one was won by the Angels 4-3 and game two by a score of 4-1. In 13 games this month, only 1 game was decided by one run for the Royals. In May, 11 of 30 games (36%) were decided by one run.