Last night the Pirates and Dodgers opened up a series. It is currently the only non-Interleague series being played. As expected, the Dodgers wasted no time jumping on Pirates pitching and making a ten game loser out of Perez. The Pirates have now lost 9 straight and tonight might make it ten. Despite winning last night, the Dodgers remain one full game back of the Padres. The Padres managed to outlast the Mariners in ten innings last night.

Zach Duke gets the ball for the Pirates tonight. The good news is that he pitches better on the road. He has a 3.81 road ERA. The bad news is he is trending downward. His ERA in April was 4.50. In May, it dipped slightly to 4.10. However, this month, it has shot up to 5.87. If Zach had a middle name, it would be “baserunners.” In games where his hits allowed have been low, his walks allowed have been high.

In his last outing, against Arizona, he went just five innings. He allowed 7 hits and 3 runs—10 total baserunners. He has only given up home runs in about half of his outings, so he is not too prone to giving up the home run ball. Expecting about 6 innings tonight seems right. I would expect 8-11 baserunners, which could mean 3-5 runs for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have Aaron Sele on the mound tonight. He has an overall ERA of 3.09. His home ERA is a shut em down 1.75. He has been deadly in LA. The main cause for concern is the fact that his last two outings have been a little suspect. However, both were on the road. His last outing was against the Oakland A’s. He went just four innings and allowed 10 baserunners. He allowed 7 hits and 3 walks. The A’s scored 5 runs on Sele and knocked him out of the game.

Before that, he pitched in San Diego against the Padres. His performance was similar, except for the runs scored. He only lasted 4 innings in that outing. He allowed 11 total baserunners—6 hits and 5 walks. He only allowed one run, but his defense let him down. The Dodgers made four errors that led to runs. So, was this a case of bad road performances or a indicator of his current form? I think the former. The Padres game would have turned out differently had the defense not made those errors and forced him to work hard and exit after four innings.

This game really comes down to who can string hits and walks together and move runners. Both teams figure to have at least 7 baserunners each. I expect the Dodgers to have more. Wagering -122 on a team with a better pitcher and one that’s fighting for first place is not a bad deal. Remember, the Pirates have lost 9 straight and are the worst team in the NL. This is a game the Dodgers should win, especially if they want to consider themselves a playoff caliber team.