The Marlins were left for dead before the season started. While they won’t contend this season, they definitely have picked up the pace. The Marlins have been getting passed just about every team they have faced lately. At one point they were winning about 15% of their games. Now, they are a .449 team—a major improvement. However, all of the success lately might be coming to an abrupt halt as they are now heading to Yankee stadium in New York.

The Yankees are licking their chops as they wait for the tasty Marlins to suit up. The Yankees are 2 games back of the Red Sox and in desperate need of a boost. If nothing else, they need to keep pace with the Red Sox to remain within reasonable striking distance. The Marlins come into town as a +203 underdog. The hometown Yankees are a whopping -243 favorite. There’s no doubt that the recent success of the red hot Marlins drove this initial line down. If this game was a month ago, the Yankees would be around a -300 favorite or so.

Speaking of the red hot Marlins. They are now 31-38 and 12.5 back of the scorching Mets. Taking the series against the Yankees would not only signify that the Marlins truly do have something going, but it might get them even closer to first place. They are currently in third place, just 2.5 back of the Phillies, which shows you how well the Mets are doing and how poorly the rest of the East is doing. The Braves you ask? They are in last place.

The Marlins have been beating up teams like the Orioles, Blue Jays, Braves and Padres. They also swept the Cubs and Rockies. For the most part, they are mixing up a good blend of scoring with stable pitching. The Yankees will represent their greatest test lately. It’s not impossible. Every year the Yankees lose to lesser teams for no apparent reason—Tampa Bay comes to mind.

The Yankees are 2 back of the Red Sox who have been on fire of late. The Red Sox have won 6 in a row and they now lead the East. The Yankees have been firing back, but are still two out. Also, the Blue Jays are 1 game back of the Yankees. The East is turning into a three horse race. While the Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Phillies, they found a way to lose 2 of 3 to the Nationals. They also got swept at home by the Oakland As.

The Yankees need to step it up if they plan on contending. In the recent past, they really have only had to worry about the Red Sox. This year the Blue Jays are showing talent and ability. Chien-Ming Wang is pitching tonight. He is much better at home—3.23 ERA. He has shut down teams like the Red Sox, Indians, As and Texas at home. His two home outings were against the Red Sox and Indians. Against the Red Sox, he allowed 8 hits, 2 walks and one run in 7 innings. Against the Indians, he did even better. He shut them out on 5 hits and one walk in 7.1 innings.

The Marlins have Brian Moehler going tonight. His road ERA is a disgusting 7.43. This is one reason why the line is so high. However, there is something to look at here. 6 of his last 7 outings have been quality starts. In those outings, he gave up 2 runs five times and 3 runs once. His lone poor start was a whacking by the Giants. If you look at how he is pitching lately, he’s not the 7.43 ERA guy.

It’s tough to get a read though. In those six quality games, he faced the Pirates, Devil Rays, Cubs, Giants, Padres and Blue Jays. So is he in fact pitching better or just doing better against decent to poor teams? That’s the big question that might be answered tonight. I am leaning towards a possible mixture. He’s definitely changed something. Early in the season, even against the same caliber of teams, he was pitching much worse. I think the Marlins have a good shot at taking the series again the Yankees. Tonight is a coin flip. I don’t think the pitching match ups are as lopsided as the line touts.