The now first place Dodgers—thanks to Arizona losing 7 straight—are in San Diego to start a new series that has a lot of meaning for the division. The Padres find themselves just three games back of first place despite having a rough week. The Dodgers are sending Aaron Sele to the hill and the Padres are sending Chan Ho Park. This game is pretty much even on the boards. The Dodgers are listed at -106 and the Padres at -104. The under/over is 8 with the over listed at -120 and the under at even.

The Dodgers are been treading water of late, going just 5-5 over their last 10. However, they have been given first place thanks to a complete failure on the part of Arizona. The Dodgers have a winning road record of 16-14 and a winning division record of 14-11. Their season run production has been 5.55 runs per game and they are playing slightly above that lately—5.9 runs per game. They are 2-3 against the Padres this year, but their 2 wins came in a 3 game series at San Diego.

The Padres have been slipping lately. They have won 4 of their last 10 games and they have lost two straight. They have a losing record at home (16-18) and a losing record against the division (11-13). Still, they are just 3 back and this series with the first place Dodgers can set the ship right. Offensively, they are scoring 4.3 runs per game this season, but over their last 10 games, they are scoring just 3.1 runs per game. It’s cause for concern since the teams they faced—Marlins, Brewers and Pirates—are not exactly top teams in the National League.

Aaron Sele has made 6 starts this season and is pitching pretty well. His overall ERA is 2.33, but his road ERA expands to 3.46. Sele’s last start was 9 days ago in Philadelphia. He went 6 innings and gave up two runs. Looking over his starts this year, one could expect him to go 6-7 innings, allow 6-7 baserunners and 2 runs. Today will be his first start against the Padres this season.

Chan Ho Park is pitching better at home than away. His home ERA is 3.43, which is about 1 run less than his overall ERA. He has faced the Dodgers once this season in a miserable performance. It was back on April 30th and he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. He allowed 9 baserunners, including 3 walks. Since the Padres were playing better then, he received a no decision. Looking at his most recent performances, one might expect him to go 6 innings, allow 8 baserunners and give up 4 runs.

I really like the Dodgers in this one and I am making them my pick today. The Dodgers are playing better than the Padres, because their competition has been better. While the Dodgers are battling with top teams like the Mets, the Padres are getting hammers by bottom teams like the Marlins and Pirates. I also like the history play here. That bad game by Park was in San Diego. Four starts ago, he was roughed up for 10 runs in 5 innings by the Mariners. Sele on the other hand has shown consistency and is fresher.