Tonight the Royals and Angels kick off a series in Anaheim. The Angels are a heavy favorite tonight at -219, while the Royals a +189 as the underdog. The over/under line is currently set at 9 with the under being -120 and the over being even. Bobby Keppel is pitching for the Royals and Ervin Santana will go for the Angels.

Both teams are playing poorly. The Angels are coming off a poor series at home against the Mariners—they were swept. The Angels have lost 3 in a row and are 4-6 over their last 10 games. They are 12-17 on the road and 10-9 against Central teams. They have not faced the Royals yet this year and perhaps the Angels are licking their chops tonight. The Royals might just be what the doctor ordered to stop the downfall and get back in the race for the average AL West.

Over the last 10 games the Angels are scoring 5.4 runs per game. Three of those ten games have runs in the double digits, so perhaps this number is inflated. In the Mariners series, they scored an average of 3 runs per game. Their average for the season is 4.60. I would lean more towards the season average.

Ervin Santana has a 4.32 ERA overall, but his ERA at home is just 2.97. He has one outing in June and it was a good one. His performance is May was worse than April, so he was trending down. Perhaps he is going to bounce back this month. Then again, his lone June appearance was against the Devil Rays. He should be good for 6-7 innings and could very well shut down the offensively lackluster Royals.

The Royals are coming off a series against Tampa Bay at home where they took one of the three games. The Royals are winning just 26% of their games this season. They are 3-7 over their last 10 and 4-8 against the west. Over their last 10 games, they are scoring 4.2 runs per game, but that includes an uncharacteristic 16 run game at Texas. Adjusting that rare game, puts them more around the 3 runs per game mark. They are scoring under 4 runs per game on average for the season and are one of the lower scoring teams around.

Bobby Keppel has a 2.11 ERA and a 2.70 road ERA, but he has only started two games. He was recently purchased from the Minors. He has pitched well in limited duty though. His last outing was against the Rangers in Kansas City. He pitched 8 strong innings giving up 7 hits, 2 walks and 1 run, but got a no decision. Before that he pitched 6.2 innings at Seattle where he gave up 6 hits, 2 home runs, 1 walk and 2 runs. He lost that game—shows you how bad KC is. The probably with guys like this is you can’t count on their past to predict the future.

Going by strictly stats would indicate an under play here. 9 is simply too high. You have two pitchers that look good against two teams struggling offensively including one team not known for scoring much—Royals. It would be easy to bet against the Royals simply because they are the Royals. However, they might have a very good shot at winning and you don’t bet -200 or so when the other team matches up decently.

It would also be easy to say that the Angels are due to win, but at -219 I don’t like it. While I am not betting here, I would take the Royals simply on value. Receiving +189 on a team that has a realistic shot at winning is never a bad thing. Last season the Angels were 7-2 against the Royals. They were 4-2 against them at home though.