The Marlins are in San Diego to open up a new series with the Padres. They are coming off a series at San Francisco where they took one of three—the last game 8-1. The Padres just finished a disaster of a series in Milwaukee where they took one of four games. Tonight Ricky Nolasco is pitching for the Marlins and Chris Young for the Padres. The Marlins are the underdog at +150 and the Padres are a -170 favorite. The under/over for this game is 7.5 with the under being -120 and the over being +130.

The Marlins are 21-36 overall and they have been showing signs of life lately. They are now a .368 ball club, which is a drastic improvement. Over their last ten games, the Marlins have been competitive and won 6 of them. They are 7-8 against the West, which is the division they have done the best against. This Marlins team is playing slightly better on the road than at home. They are scoring 4.6 runs per game over their past 10 games, but one of those games was a wild 13-0 win in Colorado. Adjusting the 13 runs with their 4.6 average, brings their runs per game average to a more realistic 3.76. They are pretty much running constant right now with their season average.

The Padres are 5-5 over their last ten and fighting hard to make up the 3 game deficit in the West. They are 6-7 against the East and have a losing record at home at 15-16. They played Florida back at the start of the season in Florida and lost 2 of 3 there. Over the last 10 games they are scoring a disgusting 2.9 runs per game. They have faced Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Colorado, which are all sub-500 clubs. Pittsburg is 22-39. The season average for the Padres is 3.9 runs per game, so they are not playing that well recently.

Ricky Nolasco has been pitching mainly relief this season. He has started four times in a row now and stamina is an issue. His last outing was a good one though—at Colorado. He pitched 8 solid innings and shut down the Rockies. However, before that he lasted only 4 innings in a shelling from the Mets. Aside from that one bad start, the rest have been excellent. Shutting down a team like the Padres who lack in offense should not be a problem for him.

Chris Young has a 3.39 ERA, but he is 4.81 at home. He is coming off of two impressive outings against the Pirates and Rockies. In both games he went 8 solid innings and allowed no runs. He has two poor outings, but other than that they have all been excellent. It’s easy to see why the line was set so low tonight—7.5. Young pitched against the Marlins in Florida on April 12th. In that appearance, he went six strong innings striking out six on his way to a one hit performance. Florida was completely shut down and the Padres won that game.

So tonight we have two teams that can struggle in the scoring department and two pitchers that have shown the ability to shut teams down. The under is a real possibility. The real crime here is the side line. The Padres are not in the position to deserve the -170 that they are receiving. This line should be set around -111, especially considering the recent states of these two teams. If I were forced to bet, I would take the Marlins and the plus money. They have a very good shot and winning tonight and they are facing Young for the second time. +150 on a team with a good chance to win is a bargain. It’s better than laying -170 on a team with an equal shot of winning. While the under is tempting, something tells me to buckle up for the runs. It’s almost too clean of a situation.