Today, the Braves and Marlins open a new series at Florida. The Braves are a -133 favorite, while the Marlins are a +123 underdog. The under/over is 7.5 with the over being -130 and the under being +110. John Smoltz will be pitching for the Braves and Josh Johnson will be pitching for the Marlins. The first pitch will be at 7:05 PM EST.

The Braves are looking to stop the pain today. Over their last 10 games, they are a pitiful 2-8. They have now slipped 10 games out of first place and are in real danger of missing the post season—can you believe that? They have a losing record on the road at 16-20, but a winning record, slightly, against the East at 15-14. For the season, they are averaging 5 runs per game, however, they are averaging just 3.9 runs per game over their last 10 games. They have dominated Florida this year by winning 6 of the 7 games they have played against the Marlins. However, the Marlins have been playing much better of late.

The Marlins are slowly starting to play better. Over their last 10 games, they are 6-4 and they have won two straight. Their win percentage is now at .383, which is miles above what it was by the middle of last month. They are 9-17 at home and 6-15 against the East. Their season run average is 4.61 per game and that’s about where they are playing at right now. Over their last 10 games they took 2 of 3 at San Diego and they went down to Colorado and swept the Rockies. Aside from one bad game in San Francisco, their pitching staff has been holding opposing teams to a couple runs per game.

John Smoltz has a 3.73 ERA overall and a 4.60 ERA on the road. He has one appearance against the Marlins this year, which was on May 17th. In that outing, he went 7.1 innings and gave up 7 hits, 2 walks and 3 runs. He has been pitching decent, ERA-wise, recently. He appears to be good for about 7 innings. He will most likely allow 8-11 baserunners.

Josh Johnson has a 2.11 ERA overall and a commanding 1.04 ERA at home. Since becoming a starter at the beginning of May, he has been turning out impressive performances. He has faced the Braves twice this year and both times held them in check. On May 10th, he allowed just 4 baserunners and shut down the Braves. It was the Marlins’ lone win against the Braves this year. On May 15th he faced them again. This time, Johnson went five innings and allowed 10 baserunners. Still, he gave up only 2 runs. Since then it looks like his endurance has improved. His last three outings were all 7 inning in length. Two of those outings were shutouts.

If history is our guide, the Marlins have a very good chance of winning today. While the under of 7.5 looks like a real possibility, the question is baserunners. Both teams could very well combine for 18-20 baserunners today. Depending on how those bunch up, the game could be a 3-2 affair or a 5-4 final. It’s quite possible for both pitchers to leave the game with around 2 innings left and 6 runs on the board.